Like many of you I have been trying to get my head around what is taking place in Trump’s USA and Putin’s Russia. By facing and trying to understand what’s going on in this global political performance, I feel more able to respond. Trump cannot be ignored, but nor can he succeed. This is the moment when our internal strength is needed, to discern how each of us can act or contribute. What is it that needs to be said?
I’ve found this article, The Weak Strongman, by Yale Professor Timothy Snyder throws some light on what is taking place. I have taken the liberty of shortening it below.
“… Trump plays a strongman on television, and he is a talented performer. …As soon as Trump meets someone with a better dictator act, like Putin, he submits. …Trump has not intimidated Russia. He has been intimidated by Russia.
The cruelty that makes Trump a strongman at home arose from the destruction of norms of civil behaviour and democratic practice. Unlike any other American politician before him, Trump has scorned the law and used hate speech to deter political opponents.
But… something that works in the United States is not relevant abroad… For words to matter, there has to be policy, …And for there to be policy, there have to be institutions staffed with competent people. And Trump’s main action so far, or really Musk’s action so far, has been to fire exactly the people who would be competent to design and implement policy. Many of the people who knew anything about Ukraine and Russia are gone from the federal government.
… Ukrainians, for that matter, have little incentive to give up their country. Trump can threaten them with cutting US arms, because stopping things is the only power he has. But Ukrainians must now expect that he would do that anyway, given his general subservience to Putin…
It is quite clear how American power could be used to bring the war to an end: make Russia weaker, and Ukraine stronger. Putin will end the war when it seems that the future is threatening rather than welcoming. And Ukraine has no choice but to fight so long as Russia invades. This is all incredibly simple. But it looks like Trump is acting precisely as is necessary to prolong the war and make it worse.
…. It’s an obvious point, but it has to be made clearly: no one in Moscow thinks that Trump is strong. He is doing exactly what Russia would want: he is repeating Russian talking points, he is acting essentially as a Russian diplomat, and he is destroying the instruments of American power, from institutions through reputation. No American president can shift an international power position without policy instruments. And these depend on functioning institutions and competent civil servants. In theory, the United States could indeed change the power position by decisively helping Ukraine and decisively weakening Russia. But that theory only becomes practice through policy. And it is not hard to see that Musk-Trump cannot make policy.
Even should he wish to, Trump cannot credibly threaten Russia and other rivals while Musk disassembles the federal government. Intimidation in foreign affairs depends upon the realistic prospect of a policy, and policy depends, precisely, on a functioning state.
…. The United States cannot deal with adversaries without qualified civil servants in the departments of government that deal with money, weapons, and intelligence. All of these are being gutted and/or run by people who lack anything vaguely resembling competence.
The Russians might or might not, as it pleases them, entertain Trump’s idea of ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. Even if they accept the ceasefire, it will be to prepare for the next invasion, in the full confidence that a United States neutered by Musk-Trump will not be able to react, that the Europeans will be distracted, and that the Ukrainians will find it harder to mobilize a second time.
A weak strongman brings only losses without gains. And so the descent begins. …The world cannot be dismissed by the weak strongman. As a strongman, he destroys the norms, laws, and alliances that held back war. As a weakling, he invites it.”
The Weak Strongman
Impotence and unfreedom together – 20th February 2025
© 2025 Timothy Snyder
548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104
Image from The Museum of Russian Art https://tmora.org/